Saturday, December 5, 2015

Total is back in Cyprus | in-cyprus.com (Cyprus Weekly)

Total is back in Cyprus
incyprus   total
By George Telaveris
French energy giant Total is officially back in Cyprus after the government extended on Thursday the company’s exploration licence in the offshore Block 11 for two more years.
Total was ready to give up all of its exploration rights in Cyprus earlier this year as its geological and geophysical surveys had found no recoverable quantities of hydrocarbons.
It eventually decided to drop only Block 10. Block 11 lies 6 kilometres from the Zohr “super giant” gas field in Egypt discovered by Italy’s Eni in August, which may hold 30 trillion cubic feet of gas, equivalent to 5.5 billion barrels of oil.
“There is a good chance for Zohr to hold oil as well as gas, and if it does the oil could extend into Cyprus’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ),” hydrocarbons business consultant Charles Ellinas told the Cyprus Weekly.
As stipulated in its official contract with Cyprus, Total has returned 25% of Block 11 to the government. Explorations in the newly-agreed area are expected to start in the summer of 2016.
Zohr is the the first discovery found in carbonate rocks in the eastern Mediterranean. Until now all discoveries have been in porous sands.
There are also possible political ramifications to the new developments , as drilling by Total in Block 11 could complicate ongoing reunification talks.
Last year, Turkey retaliated against Eni’s exploratory drilling by sending its Barbados seismic research vessel into Cyprus’ EEZ.
The Greek Cypriot side’s response was to freeze peace talks for more than five months.
Next week the government is also set to approve British multinational oil and gas company BG Group’s stake of 35% of Block 12, which includes the Aphrodite gas field.
The deal would bring the share of US-based Noble Energy in Block 12 down to 35% from 70% today, thus putting the British and UK firms on an equal footing.
“This upstream position provides a potential source of gas to Egypt where BG Group holds equity in the two-train LNG export facility at Idku as well as LNG offtake rights to lift 3.6 mtpa,” BG said in a statement.
BG is planning to use its investment to feed its liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant in Idku on the coast of Egypt.

Source: http://in-cyprus.com/total-is-back-in-cyprus/

Sisi, Cypriot president, Greek PM to hold tripartite summit in Athens Tuesday | The Cairo Post

Sisi, Cypriot president, Greek PM to hold tripartite summit in Athens Tuesday





Sisi, Cypriot president, Greek PM to hold tripartite summit in Athens Tuesday
Egyptian President Abdel Fatah Al-Sisi - AP
CAIRO: President Abdel Fatah al Sisi, his Cypriot counterpart Nicos Anastasiades and Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras are scheduled to hold a tripartite summit in Athens Tuesday, Youm7 reported.
Sisi will arrive in Athena Tuesday in a two-day visit during which he will meet with members of the Egyptian-Greek Business Forum, said presidential office source.
The summit will convene in the light of resuming the distinguished outcomes of Cairo and Nicosia tripartite summits which were held in November 2014 and April 2015.
In the November 2014 Summit, leaders of the three countries pledged to support Egypt to combat terrorism and illegal immigration while during April summit, Sisi accepted a proposal offered by Tsipras to form a committee to re-draw sea borders between both countries.
The move comes as the two nations are trying to place pressure on Turkey, which currently occupies the northern part of the Cypriot island.
In his speech in Nicosia, Sisi assured the persistence of the cooperation among the trios.  “We will keep cooperating in different fields, especially in the power and the natural gas sectors.”
On Dec. 12, 2013, Egypt has signed an agreement with Cyprus over the development of hydrocarbon reserves along the maritime border between both countries in the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ.)
El-Sisi, Anastasiades and Tsipras during the Nicosia Tripartite Summit in April 2015
The zone is a maritime territory over which a state has special rights of the exploration and use of its resources; Cyprus has signed several agreements with Egypt, Lebanon and Israel to use and explore the area.


Notes from the Knesset: US Interests and Regional Politics of Israel's Gas Framework | Natural Gas Europe



Dore Gold (Image Credit: Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs)

December 05th, 2015

American interests are showing impatience due to the delay in the approval of the natural gas regulatory framework in Israel, representatives of the Israeli Foreign Office have argued during a hearing at the Knesset's (Parliament's) Economy Committee.

During proceedings, Dore Gold, the Ministry's Director General presented a paper, issued by the U.S. State Department, titled "Investment Climate Statement 2015." In that document, the State department expresses concern because of Israel's antitrust authority's decision not to exempt Noble Energy from Israeli antitrust law.

"Particularly concerning was the December 2014 announcement of Israel's Antitrust Authority (ATA) that it may declare that the U.S company developing Israel's offshore gas [Noble Energy] and its Israeli partners are party to an agreement in restraint of trade… This antitrust threat is having a chilling effect on further investment in the sector," the paper says.

In his testimony to the Economic Committee, Mr. Gold also spoke about relations with Jordan. Mr. Gold said a Letter of Intent (LoI) signed with the Jordanian electric company (NEPCO) was obtained as the Jordanian government took on a political risk. He said the export agreement, which will prevent export of Iranian natural gas to Jordan, was important for Israel as it could strengthen ties with Jordan.

"Securing of Israeli gas to Jordan is an Israeli strategic interest and a confidence building measure," said Mr. Gold. "Gas supply won't bring peace [though a peace treaty between Israel and Jordan was signed in 1994 and is still valid] but it has the potential to strengthen peace in the future."

Mr. Gold predicted that the Palestinian Authority will backtrack on its announcement from earlier this year, in which it cancelled an agreement to purchase natural gas from Israel, since it is lacking energy sources in its territory.

As for Europe, Mr. Gold said that European countries are interested in Israeli and Middle Eastern natural gas in order to diversify their gas resources. He said that due to the continuous turmoil in North Africa, security supply from that region was affected while Middle Eastern gas supply also can be a counterweight to the European dependency on Russian natural gas.

"If we are successful at developing Israeli gas, Cypriot gas and Egyptian gas, this quantity gives us utmost importance to European energy security," said Mr. Gold.

Mr. Gold also mentioned the U.S.'s role in the export agreements, saying that the U.S was "the main bridesmaid" in Israel's gas agreement with its neighbours.

When asked questions Israel-Egypt relations, Mr. Gold said those relations are complicated and multi-layered and that Israel has to look at the whole regional picture. He said that if Jordan does not get Israeli gas it might be supplied by Iran, when the Iranians will lay a pipeline that passes all across Iraq.

In order to clarify the gas agreement's political aspect, Mr. Gold said that "we don’t say that Israel [through gas agreements will] secure either Egypt's or Jordan's stability. If we can supply energy it is a good thing."

Ron Adam, a Foreign Ministry official, said that Jordan needs the gas in order to generate 50% of its electricity. He also said that the Director General of the Cypriot Foreign Ministry told him that the Europeans will also fund an interconnector between Cyprus and Europe following a feasibility study funded also by the Europeans.

"Natural gas is a strategic asset," said Mr. Adam. "Countries are waiting breathlessly for the framework's approval. The moment the framework's approval fails, Israel's image will be totally damaged".

Ya'acov Zalel

SOURCE


Friday, December 4, 2015

Egypt, Greece and Cyprus to hold a trilateral summit in Athens on December 9 | New Europe


With Washington’s Blessing: Greece Wants To Be Hub For East Med, Caspian Gas

OFFICE OF THE GREEK PRIME MINISTER
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US Secretary of State John Kerry (2nd R) meets with Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras (R) in Athens, December 4, 2015.

Egypt, Greece and Cyprus to hold a trilateral summit in Athens on December 9

ATHENS – The major gas discoveries in Israel, Cyprus and Egypt have completely changed regional geopolitics and energy supply in the Eastern Mediterranean, Energean Oil & Gas Chairman CEO Mathios Rigas told New Europe.
On December 8, Egypt’s President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi will visit Greece where he will attend a summit meeting with Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and Cyprus President Nicos Anastasiades on December 9.
“These huge quantities of gas that have been found will be looking for a market – and naturally this market is Europe and we have to find a way to bring this gas into Europe via Greece and make Greece an energy hub,” Rigas said on the sidelines of a conference by the American-Hellenic Chamber of Commerce on December 1.
Greece can be an entry point for the rest of Europe via the Trans Adriatic pipeline (TAP) and the Interconnector Greece Bulgaria (IGB). “These are very important and strategic projects that need to happen in order to get Greece connected with the rest of Europe because at the moment Greece is completely isolated. Greece is a very small market,” Rigas said, adding that it can improve its consumption through investments and growth. “Any gas could come through Greece. We need to have LNG [liquefied natural gas]; we need to have pipelines; we need to have a number of different suppliers in order to be able to have security of supply for the Greek economy,” Rigas said.
US Secretary of State John Kerry visited Athens on December 4 where he applauded the Greek government for moving forward on TAP and IGB that will bring Azeri gas to Europe.
Meanwhile, Rigas warned that unless all Greek political parties understand that energy is the area where there has to be consensus and the country adopts a national strategy, it’s going to be extremely difficult to create a concept of a Greek energy hub.
He also noted that LNG is the obvious solution for exporting gas from Cyprus and Israel. “The pipeline that has been discussed – the East Med – is a very ambitious project with a lot of technical and commercial difficulties. LNG is the obvious solution. Of course, there is a lot of politics involved because there is a discussion for a pipeline through Turkey; there is a discussion about LNG terminals. There are no LNG terminals at the moment that are available. Egypt’s terminals will be full with the gas that has been found in Egypt and more infrastructure is required in order to bring this gas into Europe,” Rigas said.
Italian ENI’s discovery of the massive Zohr gas field off the Egyptian coast is a game-changer for Cairo and the Mediterranean in terms of energy stability. “Up to a few years ago, Egypt was talking about importing gas from Israel. Now Egypt has enough gas for its own use and will be exporting gas,” Rigas said. “We have not fully explored the East Med. We still have Greece to explore and I think Greece is country that has a lot of potential we haven’t yet tapped.”
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Experts Cast Doubt on Gas’ Role in Enhancing Israeli Regional Security | Haaretz

Experts Cast Doubt on Gas’ Role in Enhancing Israeli Regional Security
It emerges at Knesset hearings that government failed to alert cabinet 
and Knesset that Egypt may be on verge of second big gas discovery.

Avi Bar-Eli Dec 04, 2015 6:39 AM

Offshore Leviathan natural gas drilling site.Albatross
The debate over the strategic value of Israeli gas exports took a new turn Thursday after it emerged that the government knows that Egypt was likely to announce another significant new gas discovery, but failed to mention it in its latest assessment of the national security interests in exporting gas.

The Italian energy company Edison, which is completing a seismic survey in Mediterranean waters offshore Egypt, asked Israel to expand its study to Israel’s economic zone. But that information was never conveyed to the cabinet or the Knesset when the Foreign Ministry and National Security Council updated its national security assessment.


A second big natural gas discovery in Egypt could undermine efforts by the partners in Israel’s Tamar and Leviathan fields to export gas to the country, as well as the case that antitrust considerations should be overridden to speed development of Leviathan.


The discovery of major reserves at Egypt’s Zohr field in August has dashed hopes for exports, although last month the Egyptian company Dolphinus reached a preliminary agreement to buy Israeli gas.

News of the potentially big second discovery came as the Knesset Economics Committee held another day of deliberations over the gas framework, which spells out who can control the Tamar and Leviathan fields and other elements of Israeli gas policy. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in his role as economy minister, plans to sign a waiver overriding antitrust concerns after the committee hearings, putting into place the element of the framework.

At Thursday’s meeting, most experts and officials called to address the national security issues cast doubt on the government’s claims that exports to Egypt or other regional markets were possible, or would enhance Israel’s security profile.


Led astray?
Zvi Mazel, a former Israeli ambassador to Cairo who revealed that information about the second field, noted that Zohr would likely begin production in 2017 and reach peak output in 2026, so that he was doubtful Egypt would be interested in Israeli gas.

“It’s clear we need to export gas, and as quickly as possible, but it is in our interest to understand what Egypt wants so that we aren’t led astray,” Mazel said. He noted that none of the agreements with Egyptian buyers had been signed or approved by the government.

“They hinted that they want to do business, but behind the scene they say they won’t do business with Israel, rather that private companies from Israel should do business with private companies from Egypt,” he said.


Dore Gold, the Foreign Ministry director general, told lawmakers that if Israel didn’t export gas to its neighbors, Iran would fill the vacuum.


“Exporting gas is an important opportunity to improve Israel’s strategic position and let us enter the exclusive club of energy exporters. It will advance Israel’s foreign relations, especially in our immediate circle, as well as vis a vis the United States and Europe,” Gold said.


He cited American impatience with the delays in having the gas framework approved and said they would deter other multinational energy companies from coming to Israel.

Gold also warned that Iran might be ready to export gas to Jordan through Iraq. MK Yael Cohen Paran (Zionist Union) questioned that assumption, noting that Islamic State posed a threat to energy infrastructure like a pipeline, but Gold said ISIS did not present a long-term threat.

But others were skeptical. Shelly Yacimovich (Zionist Union) said that since Egypt now had ample gas reserves it was a more likely exporter of gas to Jordan and that Israel’s energy reserves were far too small to make it a major player in energy markets. “Europe needs as much gas in one year as Leviathan’s entire reserves,” she said.


Jacob Perry, a Yesh Atid MK and former head of the Shin Bet security service, noted that Egyptian exports of gas to Israel were snagged by terrorist attacks on the pipeline delivering it, and then were abruptly cut off when Cairo cancelled the contract.


The preliminary agreements about gas exports to Egypt envision using that same pipeline, Perry noted. “Our experience with Egypt and the gas pipeline hasn’t been a stunning success and now they’re talking about reversing the flow through that pipeline. If we were able to export and contribute to stability, I would be in favor, but there are a few question marks here,” Perry said.


Alon Liel, a former director general at the Foreign Ministry, said political and defense issues were a more powerful force in the Middle East than business, citing the dispute between Russia and Turkey. “See how because one jet was brought down, Putin is ready to give up on $30 billion of trade with Turkey,” he said. “The agreement with Egypt isn’t strategic but economic. “


Avi Bar-Eli
Haaretz Contributor


Source: http://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/business/.premium-1.690031

Weekly Overview on Eastern Mediterranenan Gas Matters | Natural Gas Europe

December 04th, 2015

WEEKLY OVERVIEW ON EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN NATURAL GAS MATTERS

In the past week, the Eastern Mediterranean witnessed once again the forming of new regional ties that would likely enhance regional cooperation and lead to the fruition of regional natural gas deals. International companies have shown interest in participating in offshore explorations in the Levant basin, in the form of acquiring or renewing drilling licences and by expressing their desire to purchase existing natural gas fields. Eastern Mediterranean countries are also holding various meetings to strengthen energy ties.  
Israel
The partners in Israel’s largest offshore field, the Leviathan field--estimated at 622 billion cubic metres (bcm) and discovered by Noble Energy in 2010--announced their plan to export natural gas to the Egyptian domestic market via an existing subsea pipeline. On Wednesday 25 November, the developers disclosed they had signed a preliminary deal with Egyptian company Dolphinus Holdings to export 4 bcm of gas a year for 10 to 15 years. A final deal is yet to be negotiated and finalised by the parties and will be subject to regulatory approvals.
Egypt is undergoing a severe energy crisis and is also looking to import natural gas from Israel’s Tamar field: earlier this year, in March 2015, a deal was signed between Dolphinus and the Tamar partners to buy $1.2 billion worth of natural gas (5 bcm) over a period of 7 years. Gas from the Leviathan field may also reach BG’s liquefied natural gas plant at Idku as the field’s partners pursue their negotiations with Britain’s BG Group.
ENI’s giant discovery offshore Egypt, the Zohr field estimated at up to 30 trillion cubic feet of gas (tcf), is not stopping Egypt from looking regionally for new sources of natural gas to fill in the gap in its production. Israeli and Cypriot gas could provide an interim solution for Egypt’s natural gas shortages until the Zohr field reaches production stage. Israel has initiated important efforts to fast-track the development of its fields and secure its place as a regional natural gas exporter. After months of regulatory hurdles and a domestic dispute between the partners in Israel’s largest offshore fields and the country’s Antitrust Authority, a natural gas framework is expected to be finalised in the weeks to come forcing Delek to sell its shares in the undeveloped Tanin and Karish fields in an effort to introduce competition in the domestic natural gas market. Chinese investment group Fosun International has expressed an interest in purchasing the two small fields estimated at a combined 3 Tcf.  
Egypt
On November 26, ENI announced that development of the Zohr field discovered in August 2015 and estimated at up to 30 Tcf of natural gas will commence in January 2016. The announcement followed a meeting held between ENI’s CEO Claudio Descalzi and the Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi in Cairo. The Zohr field is expected to end Egypt’s natural gas shortages and turn it into a natural gas hub. The country is still looking to import natural gas from Israel and Cyprus. Several deals are being discussed between Egyptian company Dolphinus Holdings and the Tamar and Leviathan partners for the purpose of transporting Israeli gas to the Egyptian market via an undersea pipeline.
Israel is also eyeing Egypt’s underused LNG plants to reach distant markets in Asia. It is yet unclear if Egypt’s will have the capacity to process gas from the neighbourhood, namely Israel and Cyprus, once gas from the Zohr field will start flowing, but for now, all possibilities remain on the table. The entry of the BG Group into Cyprus’s Aphrodite field is an important development that would likely secure an export deal for Cyprus. BG is the operator of the Idku plant near Alexandria in Egypt and could facilitate the sale of natural gas from Cyprus’ offshore field to Egypt.
Cyprus
ENI’s disappointing track record in Cyprus’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) is not stopping Cyprus from aspiring for a better future. Apart from BG Group’s entry among the partners in the Aphrodite field, the Cypriot Government approved on Thursday 3 December a two-year renewal of French energy giant TOTAL’s exploration rights in Block 11 of the island’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). The French giant’s contract to drill in Block 11 was approaching its expiry date in February 2016 but the company seems to have gained a renewed interest in Cyprus’s hydrocarbon potential since ENI’s substantial discovery in Egypt, only 6 kilometres away from Cyprus’s Block 11. Early in 2015, TOTALannounced it was withdrawing from Cyprus and gave up its licence to drill in Block 10 of Cyprus’ waters for not having identified drillable prospects in Block 10 of Cyprus’ EEZ. The company’s decision to renew its presence in Cyprus is a great boost for Cyprus eager to explore its potential.
In an intervention at the EU Energy Council meeting, which took place in Brussels on 26 November, Minister of Energy of Cyprus Yiorgos Lakkotrypis said there are currently around 1,600 bcm of natural gas ready for exploitation in the Eastern Mediterranean and that the amount could contribute in the EU’s quest to diversify its sources of supply. The Minister also highlighted the excellent cooperation between Cyprus and its neighbouring countries, and the island’s role in furthering the dialogue between the EU and the Eastern Mediterranean countries.
Greece
Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday 25 November in Jerusalem. The two leaders discussed common interests such as confronting the rising terrorism in the region and energy matters. They agreed on furthering the bilateral security cooperation and on expanding their energy ties working closely to facilitating the export of natural gas from Israel and Cyprus to Europe.
Prime Ministers Netanyahu and Tsipras agreed to hold a trilateral meeting with Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades in January 2016 to discuss ways to fully exploit the Eastern Mediterranean newly discovered riches in Israel, Cyprus and Egypt. In the last year, Athens has initiated efforts to enter the natural gas game offering to transport East Med gas to the EU via pipeline through Greece. The EU is looking to diversify its sources of supply away from Russia to ease its dependence on Russian gas.
Karen Ayat is an analyst and Associate Partner at Natural Gas Europe focused on energy geopolitics. Karen is also a co-founder of the Lebanese Oil and Gas Initiative (LOGI). She holds an LLM in Commercial Law from City University London and a Bachelor of Laws from Université Saint Joseph in Beirut. Email Karen karen@minoils.com Follow her on Twitter: @karenayat 


 Natural Gas Europe welcomes all viewpoints. Should you wish to provide an alternative perspective on the above article, please contact editor@minoils.com  
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Thursday, December 3, 2015

France's Total Renews Cyprus Offshore Gas Search Deal | ABC News


France's Total Renews Cyprus Offshore Gas Search Deal



Cyprus says French energy company Total has renewed its license to search for oil and gas in waters off the eastern Mediterranean island nation's southern coast for another two years.
Deputy government spokesman Victoras Papadopoulos says the government approved the renewal agreement on Thursday.
Papadopoulos said under the terms of the deal, Total's search area — or block — will be smaller. He didn't specify how much area Total cedes back to the government.
Total went ahead with the deal despite disappointing results from an initial round of exploratory drilling.
The area where Total is licensed to search is situated north of Egyptian waters where Italian energy company Eni announced in August that it had discovered what it called the "largest-ever" gas deposit ever found in the Mediterranean Sea

NICOSIA, Cyprus — Dec 3, 2015, 9:44 AM ET

Cabinet extends Total’s exploration licence | Cyprus Mail

Cabinet extends Total’s exploration licence

DECEMBER 3RD, 2015

The cabinet on Thursday approved the extension of energy giant Total’s exploration license in offshore Block 11 for two years.

Deputy government spokesman Victoras Papadopoulos said the Cabinet also approved the size and shape of the new exploration area in Block 11.

“This means that it was also agreed the percentage that Total will return, under the agreements signed with the Republic of Cyprus in the event of renewal of the contract,” he added.

Total’s licence expires in February 2016. 


The new target lies in carbonate layers in the bedrock, taking the cue from ENI, which back in August discovered a massive natural gas reservoir in carbonate layers within Egyptian waters.

Previously, Total had deployed a different geological model, tracking sand reservoirs. Back in January, the company was all but ready to pull out of Cyprus having failed to identify targets, but was persuaded by the government to keep its operations going.

Total had relinquished Block 10 without drilling any wells.

The company was released from its original two-well drilling commitment – across two adjacent blocks, 10 and 11, lying on the maritime border with Egypt – but maintained exploration rights in Block 11, agreeing to continue to evaluate 3D seismic data in a bid to locate a possible target.



Source: http://cyprus-mail.com/2015/12/03/cabinet/

Consultant: Big Gas Discovery Off the Coast of Egypt to be Announced | NATURAL GAS EUROPE


December 03rd, 2015 Ya'acov Zalel 

Edison, the Italian energy company, a subsidiary of France's EDF, will announce in the near future the discovery of a new big gas field in Egyptian territorial waters, Zvi Mazel, a former Israeli diplomat and a former ambassador to Egypt has said.

Mr. Mazel revealed this information (yet to be confirmed by Edison) when he testified in front of the Knesset Economy Committee during its hearings on the natural gas regulatory framework in Israel. Mr. Mazel, currently a freelance consultant, based his information on data from GlobalData, an information and research organization.

The assertion was not accepted as fact by all at the Committee hearing. Later in the hearing Mr. Mazel's revelation was rejected by Ron Adam, an official in the Israeli Foreign Ministry.

Russian Jet Penetration into Israel's Air Space May Signal New East Med Coalition | Natural Gas Europe

December 03rd, 2015

RUSSIAN JET PENETRATION INTO ISRAEL'S AIR SPACE MAY SIGNAL NEW EAST-MED COALITION

Israel's Defence Minister, Moshe Ya'alon, was informed on Sunday that a Russian jet fighter entered Israel's airspace. According to Mr. Ya'alon, the jet fighter intruded one to two miles into Israeli territory.
Mr. Ya'alon was told about the incident during a radio interview and said that, due to open communication channels between Israel and Russia, a confrontation was averted and the Russian jet fighter left Israel air space. Russia is conducting an air campaign in Syria against rebel groups in the north and north-east of the country, but sometimes also bombs targets close to the Israeli border.
The incident came on the heels of a statement made by Amos Gilad, a former general and a top official at the Defence Ministry at the weekend, who indicated that relations were strong between Israel and Russia.
"Russian pilots cross sometimes into Israel's airspace," he said. "However, excellent military coordination was kickstarted during a Netanyahu-Putin meeting [Israel's Prime Minister and the Russian President met on 21 September in Moscow in order to facilitate military coordination], in which boundaries were set and the IDF and the Russian army concluded a security arrangement."
The cooperation between Israel and Russia is part of a broader coalition in the Middle East. Its members are Israel, Cyprus, Greece, Egypt, Jordan and Russia. The leaders of Israel, Cyprus and Greece met in the last few weeks and yesterday Mr. Netanyahu, the Israeli PM, conducted a meeting with the Russian President Vladimir Putin, in Paris, during the climate talks.
Prime Minister Netanyahu pointed to the fact that this was his and President Putin's second meeting and that they had spoken on the phone often.
"I think that, as you say, the events of recent days prove the importance of our coordination, our de-confliction mechanisms, our attempts to cooperate with each other to prevent unnecessary accidents and tragedies and I believe that we’ve been successful," he told President Putin, according a press release published on the official Israel Prime Minister website. "I’m very satisfied by the fact that our militaries have been very careful to coordinate with one another and will continue to do so. I think this is an indication of the openness and the success of the relationship between Israel and Russia, our relationship."
The regional coalition members are in diplomatic confrontation with Turkey. Turkey remains isolated with no allies in the Middle East, as was evident following the incident in which a Turkish jet fighter shot down a Russia jet fighter.
That situation has implications on the natural gas environment in the region, since Russia is the main gas supplier to Turkey and Israeli natural gas investors would love to sell natural gas to Turkey, the biggest customer in the region. However, that will decrease Russia's domination over the Turkish market, an effect that President Putin isn't going to be in a hurry to witness.
Meanwhile Israel, Cyprus and Greece are entertaining the idea of creating an interconnection to mainland Greece and from there to south Europe, another option that might irritate Russia, who is Cyprus's and Greece's best ally (despite the fact that both of those countries are EU members). Another option on the cards is exporting electricity from Cyprus to Europe, generated from Cypriot and Israeli natural gas.


 Natural Gas Europe welcomes all viewpoints. Should you wish to provide an alternative perspective on the above article, please contact editor@minoils.com  
Kindly note that we only lightly edit content for grammar and do not edit externally contributed content.

Wednesday, December 2, 2015

Egypt's Dolphinus says sees gas import deal with Israel in months | Amwal Al Ghad

Egypt's Dolphinus says sees gas import deal with Israel in months


Published Wednesday, 02 December 2015 20:31 | Written by Amwal Al Ghad English

Dolphinus Holdings, an Egyptian gas trading company, expects to sign a final agreement on natural gas imports from Israel’s Leviathan field in the next four to six months.

Dolphinus is a firm that represents non-governmental, industrial and commercial consumers in Egypt; while Leviathan is owned by a group led by Texas-based Noble Energy and Israeli conglomerate Delek Group.

Dolphinus hopes to get the necessary approval from the Egyptian government in a “few months," co-founder Khaled Abu Bakr told Bloomberg by phone from Paris. The company has the support of a “large shareholder” in the Arish–Ashkelon pipeline, which links Israel to Egypt’s Arab-Gas Pipeline, and is discussing fees, Abu Bakr said, without identifying the shareholder.

A week earlier, a senior source from Egypt's Petroleum Ministry asserted to Amwal Al Ghad that the government has nothing to do with the agreement signed between Leviathan and Dolphinus Holdings The source further said that companies wishing to import foreign gas must obtain state approval. It "must achieve a national interest for Egypt and must have added value for the economy", the source said.

The state, the source added, does not mind allowing private sector companies that wish to import gas for their own use or for a range of industries to use the infrastructure and facilities owned by the state in exchange for a tariff to be agreed.

An agreement would alleviate an energy shortage in Egypt that has cut industrial output and may also help to position the country as a transfer point for eastern Mediterranean gas, where Israel, Cyprus and Egypt itself have made large discoveries. The government ended a state monopoly on importing and exporting gas earlier in February.

“We’re betting on the liberalization of Egypt’s energy market that will allow the private sector to import its own gas," Abu Bakr further told Bloomberg.

Dolphinus, co-founded by Abu Bakr and Egyptian businessman Alaa Arafa, is negotiating with partners in the Leviathan field to buy as much as 4 billion cubic meters of natural gas a year for 10 to 15 years. It also signed a deal to import the fuel from Israel’s Tamar offshore gas field in March.

Egypt exported natural gas to Israel up until it canceled the deal in 2012 as producing wells depleted and new explorations slowed down. The two countries have resumed normal relations following the 1979 peace accord, yet sensitivities linger about doing business with Israel among many Egyptians.

Abu Bakr said political issues do not worry him and he is counting on the government’s “seriousness” in this issue.

“This is a technical opportunity that is viable economically, and I am just doing my business,” he said. “If it will not be good for the country they will tell us not to do it,” he said.

Egypt will eventually develop into a gas hub for the region, Abu Bakr said.

“After the countries in the region satisfy the demand in their local market, they will look to export,” he said. “Egypt has the infrastructure to become the main transport point for all this gas.”

Source: http://www.amwalalghad.com/en/investment-news/industry-trade/41429-egypts-dolphinus-says-sees-gas-import-deal-with-israel-in-months.html

Total within sight of Block 11 deal extension | in-cyprus.com (Cyprus Weekly)

Total within sight of Block 11 deal extension


The Cyprus government is poised to green light the exploration rights in its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) for French energy giant Total for another two years, according to reports in Phileleftheros on Wednesday.
According to the paper, Total looks set to get its contract extension for another two years with an official government announcement expected on Thursday. The French company has already put forward the €7.7million deposit and is odds-on favourites to continue exploration in offshore Block 11 of the island’s EEZ with the possibility of drilling as early as next year.
Total is also said to have returned 25% of Block 11 – as stipulated in its official contract with Cyprus. Explorations in its newly agreed area is expected to commence in the summer of 2016.
Meanwhile, Total has also requested to have the rights for Block 10 returned but the Energy Ministry is expected to seek advice from the Legal Services on how to proceed legally due to the interest from rival firms to also explore the area.
Total was initially a reluctant explorer in offshore Cyprus, as it was primarily focusing on looking for oil rather than natural gas. The company even decided to give up its licence in Block 10 earlier this year and the government fought hard to persuade the company not to abandon Block 11 as well.

However, the recent discovery of gas in Egypt’s Zohr reservoirs by Italian multinational oil and gas company Eni just six kilometres from Block 11 forced Total to reconsider its strategy in the region.
Another sticking point for Total is what Cypriot port to use with the cabinet having recently ruled out Larnaca as a port of call for the French exploratory vessel while the Limassol Port has also not been given the necessary restructuring to meet the needs of Total.
There are also possible political ramifications too.
Likely drilling by Total in Block 11 could complicate ongoing reunification talks. Last year, Turkey retaliated against Eni’s exploratory drilling by sending the seismic research vessel ‘Barbaros’ into the Republic of Cyprus EEZ.
The Greek Cypriot side’s response was to freeze peace talks for more than five months.

Source: http://in-cyprus.com/total-within-sight-of-block-11-deal-extension/

Tuesday, December 1, 2015

Western Firms Plan To Cash In On Syria’s Oil And Gas ‘Frontier’ | Mint Press News

Western Firms Plan To Cash In On Syria’s Oil And Gas ‘Frontier’

US, British, French, Israeli and other energy interests could be prime beneficiaries of a major offensive on Syria designed to rollback the power of the ‘Islamic State’ (ISIS) and, potentially the Assad regime.
By  @nafeezahmed December 1, 2015
    US-led coalition forces carry out a large-scale 
    attack on Syria’s Omar oil field

    US, British, French, Israeli and other energy interests could be prime beneficiaries of military operations in Iraq and Syria designed to rollback the power of the ‘Islamic State’ (ISIS) and, potentially, the Bashar al-Assad regime.
    A study for a global oil services company backed by the French government and linked to Britain’s Tory-led administration, published during the height of the Arab Spring, hailed the significant “hydrocarbon potential” of Syria’s offshore resources.
    The 2011 study was printed in GeoArabia, a petroleum industry journal published by a Bahrain-based consultancy, GulfPetroLink, which is sponsored by some of the world’s biggest oil companies, including Chevron, ExxonMobil, Saudi Aramco, Shell, Total, and BP.
    GeoArabia’s content has no open subscription system and is exclusively distributed to transnational energy corporations, corporate sponsors and related organisations, as well as some universities.
    Authored by Steven A. Bowman, a Senior Geoscientist for the French energy company CGGVeritas, the study identified “three sedimentary basins, Levantine, Cyprus, and Latakia, located in offshore Syria” and highlighted “significant evidence for a working petroleum system in offshore Syria with numerous onshore oil and gas shows, DHIs (direct hydrocarbon indicators) observed on seismic, and oil seeps identified from satellite imagery.”

    France’s secret affair with Assad’s Syria

    At the time, when civil unrest was sweeping across Syria, CGGVeritas was contracted to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Sources.
    The French company is one of the world’s largest seismic surveyors. Backed by the French government which owns 18% voting rights in the firm, CGGVeritas had acquired seismic data on offshore Syrian resources in 2005, and since then has been the main point of contact for geophysical and geological datasets on behalf of the Syrian regime.
    In 2011, the French firm had an exclusive contract with the Syrian government to provide technical support for that year’s Syrian International Offshore Bid Round for firms to explore, develop and produce oil and gas from three offshore blocks in the Mediterranean Sea by the Syrian coast.
    “Exploration activity has increased in the Eastern Mediterranean in recent years following a series of major multi-TCF (trillion cubic feet) gas discoveries made in the offshore southern Levantine Basin,” wrote Bowman. “Licensing rounds are scheduled to be announced during 2011 for areas in offshore Syria, Lebanon, and Cyprus, which are believed to share strong geological similarities with these discoveries.”
    Describing offshore Syria as “a truly frontier area of exploration”, Bowman — who was also involved in CGGVeritas evaluations of seismic datasets of energy resources in Libya — noted the discovery of several “flat-spots” which, if real, “will represent billion-barrel/multi-TCF [trillion cubic feet] drilling targets given the scale and volumetrics of the structures within which they occur.”
    Image of Syrian offshore fields from 2011 GeoArabia study

     

    Western energy majors court Assad

    CGGVeritas was also licenced by the British government for the North Sea, where for the last several years Bowman has held responsibility for identifying prospectivity and coordinating licencing round activities.
    In 2012, the US Department of the Interior published a US Geological Survey Minerals Yearbook, which observed that Assad’s government-owned Syrian Petroleum Co.:
    “… cooperated with several international oil companies, such as Chinese National Petroleum Co. (CNPC), Gulfsands Petroleum of the United Kingdom, Oil and Natural Gas Resources Corp. of India, Royal Dutch Shell plc. of the United Kingdom, and Total SA of France through subsidiary companies.”
    Two years earlier, the Syrian capital, Damascus, was host to the 7th Syrian International Oil & Gas Exhibition, convened by Assad’s Ministry of Petroleum. The exhibition was sponsored by CNPC, Shell, and the French major Total, and was attended by over a hundred representatives of international firms, 40% of whom were based in Europe.
    A 2010 draft document produced on behalf of the Syrian Ministry of Petroleum by the exhibition organiser, Allied Expo, described how British company Shell was planning to work closely with the Assad regime to develop Syria’s gas production:
    “Shell will devise a master plan for the development of the gas sector in Syria, following an agreement signed with the Ministry of Petroleum,” say the presentation slides, created in October 2010 to promote plans for a new oil and gas exhibition in 2012. “The agreement includes an assessment of the overall undiscovered gas potential in Syria, potential for upstream gas production, need for gas transmission and distribution networks…”


    Slide from 2010 Syrian Ministry of Petroleum presentation
    (mistake in final sentence is from the original)
    Throughout 2010, Shell officials held numerous meetings with British government ministers. In July, Shell met David Cameron to discuss “business issues”, Foreign Office minister David Howell to discuss “international energy matters”, and Charles Hendry, minister of state at the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC).
    Slide from 2010 Syrian Ministry of Petroleum presentation

    Such meetings with multiple government departments and often dozens of senior officials continued for every month through to the end of the following year, except June 2010. These included meetings with the Prime Minister’s National Security Advisor Peter Ricketts; business secretary Vince Cable, various DECC ministers to discuss “energy issues” related to Qatar, along with several sessions with Cameron and Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne.
    Slide from 2010 Syrian Ministry of Petroleum presentation
    After the 2011 protests, even when Assad was brutalising demonstrators in the streets, then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton ruled out military intervention and insisted that the Syrian dictator was a “reformer” — which he took as a green light to escalate his crackdown.
    As the cycle of violence intensified, Western governments disassociated from Assad when it became clear his rule had become completely unstable. With the outbreak of civil war, the plans of Shell and other oil majors to open up Syria’s offshore resources were unexpectedly suspended.

    Military action to protect Mediterranean oil and gas

    The sudden crisis in Syria threw a spanner in the works for longstanding efforts to explore and open up lucrative energy resources in the Eastern Mediterranean.
    report published in December 2014 by the US Army’s Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) provides compelling evidence that American, British and Gulf defence strategists see the Mediterranean as an opportunity to wean Europe off dependence on Russian gas, and boost Israel’s energy independence.
    As part of this process, the report revealed, military action is viewed as potentially necessary to secure Syria’s untapped offshore gas resources, which overlap with the territorial waters of other Mediterranean powers, including Israel, Egypt, Lebanon, Cyprus, Greece and Turkey.
    The report by Mohammed El-Katiri, an advisor to the United Arab Emirates Ministry of Defence and formerly a research director at the UK Ministry of Defence’s (MoD) Advanced Research and Assessment Group (ARAG), explicitly acknowledges that a post-conflict Syria would open up new prospects for energy exploration.
    “Once the Syria conflict is resolved, prospects for Syrian offshore production — provided commercial resources are found — are high,” wrote El-Katiri. Potential oil and gas resources can be developed “relatively smoothly once the political situation allows for any new exploration efforts in its offshore territories.”
    The US Army SSI report noted that Syria’s offshore resources are part of a wider matrix of oil and gas deposits in the Levant basin encompassing the offshore territories of these competing states.
    The region is estimated to hold approximately 1.7 billion barrels of oil and 122 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, which could be just a third of the basin’s total hydrocarbons.
    US-led military intervention has a key role to play, the report concludes, in “managing” conflicts and tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean, especially the prospect of “Syria destabilising into de facto civil war.”
    “US diplomatic and military support has a pivotal role to play in the East Mediterranean’s complex geopolitical landscape, and its importance will only grow as the value of the natural resources at stake increases,” the Army SSI report said:
    “US security and military support for its main allies in the case of an eruption of natural resource conflict in the East Mediterranean may prove essential in managing possible future conflict.”

    Neocons angling for Syria’s Golan oil bonanza

    One of the key potential conflicts flagged up by the report is between Syria and Israel, over oil exploration licenses granted by the Israeli government to search for oil in the Golan Heights.
    The Golan was captured by Israel from Syria in 1967, and unilaterally annexed in 1981 with the introduction of Israeli law to the territory.
    The report recognised the risk of “another armed conflict between the two parties should substantial hydrocarbon resources be discovered.”
    The company that has been granted exploration rights in the Golan Heights is a major American firm, Genie Oil and Gas. Data from exploratory wells explored by Genie’s Israeli subsidiary, Afek Oil and Gas, confirmed “significant” quantities of oil and gas after drilling into a column of reserves 1,150 feet thick, “about 10 times larger than the global average.”
    Yuval Bartov, Afek’s chief geologist, recently told the Economist his firm had discovered an oil reservoir “with the potential of billions of barrels.”
    Equity-holding board members of Afek’s parent company, Genie Oil and Gas, include global media baron Rupert Murdoch.
    In late 2010, Murdoch teamed up with Lord Jacob Rothschild to buy a 5.5% stake in Genie, worth around $11 million. Lord Rothschild is chairman of RIT (Rothschild Investment Trust) Capital Partners, a $3.4 billion investment trust fund formerly associated with the Rothschild investment bank.
    RIT Capital invests primarily in public equity, debt markets, real estate equities, gold and oil, including“sectors that we have a deep knowledge of” such as “energy, resources, financial services, TMT [technology, media and telecommunications] and consumer-related.”
    Murdoch is the owner of News Corporation, the world’s second largest media conglomerate before it split in 2013 into News Corp, where he is executive chairman, and 21st Century Fox, where he is co-executive chairman, running the corporation with his two sons, Lachlan and James.
    As such, Murdoch is a dominant force over newspapers, publishers and TV networks in the English-language media, encompassing BSkyB, The Times and The Sun in the UK; the FOX cable network including FOX News, Dow Jones, The Wall Street JournalNew York Post and National Geographic in the US; The AustralianThe Daily Telegraph, and Herald Sun in Australia — to name just a few.
    “I believe Genie Energy’s technologies and vast shale oil licenses have real potential to spur a global, geo-political paradigm shift by moving a major portion of new oil production to America, Israel, and other western-oriented democracies,” said Murdoch explaining his reasons for investing in the firm.
    During the Leveson inquiry, it emerged that the global media baron had numerous undisclosed meetings with Prime Minister David Cameron, who appeared to have close relationships with Murdoch and other senior News Corp. officials.
    Murdoch and Rothschild also serve on Genie’s strategic advisory board. Joining them on the board are Larry Summers, former Director of President Obama’s National Economic Council; ex-CIA Director James Woolsey, a former Vice-President of NSA contractor Booz Allen Hamilton, Director of the neoconservative Foundation for Defense of Democracies, advisory board member of anti-Muslim hate group the Gatestone Institute, international patron to the Henry Jackson Society; Dick Cheney, former Vice-President under George W. Bush; and Bill Richardson, former Secretary of Energy under Clinton, Governor of New Mexico and Obama nominee for Secretary of Commerce.

    Dismembering Syria to stave-off peak oil

    Another of Genie Oil and Gas’s subsidiaries is American Shale Oil, a joint project with the French major Total SA. Total was among the sponsors of the 2010 international oil and gas exhibition hosted by the Assad regime in Damascus.
    American Shale Oil (AMSO) operates in the US in Colorado’s Green River Formation, estimated to hold 3 trillion barrels of recoverable oil.
    On its website, the company offers an extraordinary declaration regarding its rationale for focusing on unconventional oil and gas resources in the US and Israel:
    “The peaking of world oil production presents the US and the world with an enormous challenge. Aggressive action must be taken to avoid unprecedented economic, social and political costs.”


    Screenshot of website of Genie Energy subsidiary
    This candid statement demonstrates that the interests behind Genie Energy recognise the reality of ‘peak oil’ usually denied by the industry. Peak oil does not imply that the world is running out of oil, but rather the end of the age of cheap, easy oil as conventional oil production declines, and therefore an increasing shift to a new age of expensive, difficult oil.
    Declassified documents along with senior US and British officials involved in the 2003 invasion and occupation of Iraq confirm that fears around the impact of ‘peak oil’ played an instrumental role in the Bush and Blair administration’s plans for war.
    This illustrates that Genie Energy’s activities via Israel in Syria remain integral to the wider strategic goal of dominating the world’s remaining oil and gas resources, due to concerns about the impact of ‘peak oil.’
    Obama appears to have few objections to the premise of Genie Energy’s oil exploration activities in the Syrian Golan Heights: that the territory will ultimately be ceded to Israel.
    In early November, as Nazareth-based journalist Jonathan Cook reports, “Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu took advantage of a private meeting… with Barack Obama — their first in 13 months — to raise the possibility of dismembering Syria.”
    According to Israeli officials familiar with the conversation:
    “Netanyahu indicated that Washington should give its belated blessing to Israel’s illegal annexation of the Golan Heights, captured from Syria during the 1967 war…. Netanyahu claimed that Syria was no longer a functioning state, allowing ‘for different thinking.’”
    Obama’s response was telling — he did not clarify to Netanyahu that the dismemberment of Syria was out of the question:
    “[A]n unnamed White House official confirmed that Netanyahu had raised the matter. The official said: ‘I think the president didn’t think it warranted an answer. It wasn’t clear how serious he [Netanyahu] was about it.’
    There is thus a surprisingly broad and powerful nexus of US, British, French and Israeli interests, encompassing defence, security, energy and media sectors, at the forefront of pushing for the break-up Syria.
    An overriding motive for this is the control of what is believed to be potentially vast untapped oil and gas resources in Syria and the wider Eastern Mediterranean. Relatedly, the US and Britain aim to rollback Russian and Iranian influence in the region.
    According to the 2012 US Department of the Interior’s Geological Survey Minerals Yearbook on Syria, the Syrian civil war has put paid to Assad’s ambitions to transform Syria into a gas transshipment hub to Europe allied with Russia and Iran:
    “In the summer of 2011, Iran, Iraq and Syria signed a memorandum of understanding on laying a 5,000-kilometer pipeline, to be named the Islamic Gas Pipeline. The proposed pipeline would transport gas resources from Iran’s South Pars field and would extend through Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon and to Europe under the Mediterranean Sea. Iran had suggested that the Islamic Gas Pipeline could serve as an alternative to the EU-backed Nabucco pipeline, which was set to supply Europe with gas resources by way of Turkey and Austria.”
    The other alternative was a proposed pipeline backed by the US that would transport gas from the Qatar-owned part of the field overlapping with Iran, known as the North Field.
    At 872 trillion cubic feet, the latter comprises the third-largest proven reserves of natural gas in the world. Together, Qatar’s North Field and Iran’s South Pars constitute the world’s single largest natural gas deposit.
    The Qatar pipeline would run through Saudi Arabia, Syria and Turkey where gas could then be transported to Europe. Companies that have a stake in developing Qatar’s North Field include the US-based ExxonMobil and France’s Total.
    CGG Veritas, the French-government backed firm previously contracted to Assad’s regime in Syria to scope the country’s offshore resources, had also conducted seismic surveys of the North Field on behalf of Qatar, after which it was contracted to survey Qatar’s Dukhan field.
    The conflict that increasingly engulfed Syria after Assad signed the Russia-backed pipeline deal with Iran has effectively annulled the Iran-Syria pipeline project, which was supposed to have been completed in 2016.
    “The war and sanctions had an adverse effect on Syrian hydrocarbon sector activity, including development, exploration, export, production, transportation, and distribution,” observed the US Geological Survey report:
    “As the war continued in the country, Syria’s prospect of becoming a significant energy transit country to Iraq, the Mediterranean area, and Europe was severely diminished.”

    ISIS is a figleaf for the Mediterranean scramble

    Despite that, or perhaps because of it, Russia is intent on laying its stake in the ground.  SoyuzNefteGaz, a Russian oil and gas company, began oil prospecting operations in September 2015 on Syria’s western coast — the same area scoped by CGGVeritas.
    The operations follow on from a 2013 agreement between Syria and Russia, under which SoyuzNefteGaz would pump in an initial investment of around $90 million.
    Russia’s increasing military build-up in Syria, justified as an offensive against ISIS, is more likely about propping up Assad within a self-contained Alawite mini-state allied with Iran.
    Putin’s announcement after Turkey’s shooting down of a Russian jet that Turkey has been systematically facilitating ISIS oil sales illustrates how the terror-entity has become a figleaf to justify military action.
    As INSURGEintelligence has previously reported, there is significant evidence that high-level elements of Turkish government and intelligence agencies have covertly sponsored Islamist terrorist groups in Syria, including ISIS, and that this has involved permitting black market oil sales.
    Why, however, did Vladimir Putin wait until the murder of a Russian pilot before announcing Russia’s possession of intelligence on Turkish state-sponsorship of ISIS?
    There can be little doubt that Putin had previously been more interested in protecting Russian relations with Turkey as an emerging gas transshipment hub to Europe, under which he and Erdogan planned to build the multibillion Russia-Turkey gas pipeline, Turkish Stream — now suspended after the recent diplomatic furore.
    US, British and French military operations have been similarly inconsistent, inexplicably failing to shut down ISIS supply lines through Turkey, failing to bomb critical ISIS oil infrastructure including vast convoys of trucks transporting black market oil, and refusing to arm the most effective and secular Kurdish ground forces combating ISIS.
    It has become increasingly clear that the US-led coalition strategy is aimed primarily at containment of the group’s territorial ambitions within Syria.
    Shortly before the Paris attacks, Obama explained:
    “From the start our goal has been first to contain, and we have contained them. They have not gained ground in Iraq. And in Syria it — they’ll come in, they’ll leave. But you don’t see this systematic march by ISIL across the terrain.”
    This strategy is, however, consistent with the de facto partitioning of Iraq and Syria apparently favoured by the nexus of neoconservative defence and energy interests described above.
    As Russia expands its military presence in the region in the name of fighting ISIS, the US, Britain and France are now scrambling to ensure they retain a military foothold in Syria — an effort to position themselves to make the most of a post-conflict environment. As the US Geological Survey Minerals Yearbook put it:
    “Most of the international investors who pulled out of Syria following the deterioration of the safety and security situation throughout the country… are expected to remain so until the military and political conflicts are resolved.”
    In this context, as Russia and Iran consolidate their hold on Syria through the Assad regime — staking the claim to Syria’s untapped resources in the Mediterranean — the acceleration of Western military action offers both a carrot and a stick: the carrot aims to threaten the Assad regime into a political accommodation that capitulates to Western regional energy designs; the stick aims to replace him with a more compliant entity comprised of rebel forces backed by Western allies, the Gulf states and Turkey, whilst containing the most virulent faction, ISIS.
    It is unlikely that this blood-soaked strategy to beat Russia and Iran to Mediterranean energy riches has any prospect of success, for any of the parties.
    Judging by recent history, it is also likely to backfire in ways that cannot be foreseen, nor controlled.

    Dr Nafeez Ahmed is an investigative journalist, bestselling author and international security scholar. A former Guardian writer, he writes the ‘System Shift’ column for VICE’s Motherboard, and is a weekly columnist for Middle East Eye.
    He is the winner of a 2015 Project Censored Award, known as the ‘Alternative Pulitzer Prize’, for Outstanding Investigative Journalism for his Guardian work, and was twice selected in the Evening Standard’s ‘Power 1,000’ most globally influential Londoners, in 2014 and 2015.
    Nafeez has also written and reported for The Independent, Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, The Scotsman, Foreign Policy, The Atlantic, Quartz, Prospect, New Statesman, Le Monde diplomatique, New Internationalist, Counterpunch, Truthout, among others.
    He is a Visiting Research Fellow at the Faculty of Science and Technology at Anglia Ruskin University, where he is researching the link between global systemic crises and civil unrest for Springer Energy Briefs.
    Nafeez is the author of A User’s Guide to the Crisis of Civilization: And How to Save It (2010), and the scifi thriller novel ZERO POINT, among other books. His work on the root causes and covert operations linked to international terrorism officially contributed to the 9/11 Commission and the 7/7 Coroner’s Inquest.



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