November 28, 2018
Nikos Tsafos
As the battle for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project continues, the offshore section of the TurkStream gas pipeline, from Russia to Turkey, was inaugurated on Monday, November 19. Two broadly similar projects have triggered sharply different responses—no one is threatening sanctions over TurkStream, there are no grand legal or diplomatic chess moves to stop the project, and the op-eds and conferences denouncing the project are few and far between. That is good news—no one needs more Nord Stream 2-like controversy. But it is also good news because TurkStream can enhance energy security; but only if Europe acts. For a continent bitterly—and, often, needlessly— divided by pipelines, TurkStream offers an opportunity to depoliticize gas and show that new infrastructure can be a win-win for Russia and Europe.
TurkStream will have two parallel lines: the first to deliver gas to Turkey, the second for onward sale to Europe (although markets will determine the actual volume split). Like other Russian pipelines, the short-term impact will be to change how Russian gas is sent to Europe: rather than flowing through Ukraine, Russian gas will be shipped straight to Turkey and, later, Europe through the Black Sea. Over time, as Russian exports grow, the pipeline will be delivering new gas rather than acting purely as a substitute route. This evolution takes time: gas transit through Ukraine fell by approximately 40 percent between 2011 and 2014, after the Nord Stream 1 pipeline came online, but it had largely recovered by 2017 (2017 volumes were about 10 percent lower than 2011).
