The Lebanese-Israeli Maritime Border Conflict Explained | Natural Gas Europe

May 05th, 2014

The maritime border dispute between Israel and Lebanon remains unresolved. The neighbouring countries are technically in a state of war. The discovery of substantial amounts of natural gas off the coast of Israel (with the 10 tcf Tamar field and 19 Tcf Leviathan discovered respectively in 2009 and 2010) triggered third-party efforts to mediate the dispute in order to allow for the effective development of the hydrocarbon riches in the Levant basin. All attempts towards getting Lebanon and Israel to agree on the delimitation of their maritime borders have failed thus far.

Lebanon has not yet started drilling in its exclusive economic zone, delayed by a political deadlock. Results from seismic surveys suggest that its waters contain large quantities of natural gas (up to 95 tcf - according to a statement from previous energy minister Gebran Bassil). Neighbouring Cyprus also recently encountered natural gas in its Aphrodite field in Block 12 discovered in 2011. The estimated gross mean of the field is 5 Tcf, less than originally anticipated.

Amos Hochstein, U.S. deputy assistant secretary for energy diplomacy, is leading the US efforts to solve the dispute. He recently said that talks were moving forward without disclosing further details on the progress achieved.

The US efforts could be explained by the US’ economic interests in the Middle East and the US foreign policy for the region: supporting Israel’s security and providing incentives for political reconciliations. The maritime border conflict - if unresolved - could eventually lead to another military confrontation between Lebanon and Israel that would add to the instability of the region.

The two countries both claim a maritime triangular area of 850 square kilometers as their own. In 2011, they submitted their respective claims to the UN. The claims overlap and are incompatible with the previous accords negotiated between Lebanon and Cyprus in 2007 and Israel and Cyprus in 2010. The Lebanese-Cypriot agreement remains unratified to date while the Israeli-Cypriot agreement came into force in 2011.

While both countries can pursue exploration activities in their respective EEZs without conducting any drilling in the disputed area before a resolution is achieved, a solution would be beneficial to attract investors that may be reluctant to participate in disturbed waters. The fact that Israel and Lebanon have historically had tensed relations that never existed under normal diplomatic conditions renders the task of mediating their dispute difficult to say the least. However, optimists may argue that given that hydrocarbon riches are at stake, the two states would benefit from reaching a settlement.

Karen Ayat is an analyst focused on energy geopolitics in the Eastern Mediterranean. Email Karen on ayat_karen@hotmail.com. Follow her on Twitter: @karenayat










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