Israel and Turkey signed an agreement to normalise relations last week after a six-year diplomatic spat, raising hopes that Israeli gas could be exported to Turkey by pipeline. However, Cyprus has indicated it will block the construction of a Turkish pipeline that passes through its territory.
When asked about the project, Cypriot government spokesperson Nicos Christodoulides told reporters on Tuesday that Cyprus would oppose it because the country is under occupation by Turkish forces and the pipeline would serve Turkey.
The two parts of Cyprus would need to be unified for a pipeline to be approved, he added.
The island of Cyprus has been split into two parts – one consisting of Greek Cypriots and the [ethnically cleansed, formerly 90% majority Christian, 90% of properties owned by them] controlled by Turkish-Cypriots – since 1974, with the latter not recognised by the international community. The result is that the Republic of Cyprus does not have diplomatic relations with Turkey.
Although the Greek Cypriot run government, which is internationally recognised, is in talks with the Turkish-Cypriot north, an agreement is far from imminent.
The [illegal] Turkish-Cypriot administration welcomed the deal between Israel and Turkey, hailing it as an opportunity to work together on energy projects.
"The normalisation of Turkey-Israel relations also allows for new cooperation opportunities to arise, particularly with regards to the natural gas of the Eastern Mediterranean," Turkish-Cypriot "president" Mustafa Akıncı said last week.
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| A Greek Cypriot boy in front of the Turkish-occupied zone on Cyprus. (PA) |
The prospect of Israel accessing European markets for its gas via Turkey was an important incentive for Israel to sign the deal, said the country’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. "This agreement opens the way to cooperation on economic and energy matters, including the gas issue," he said.
Political reassurance
Netanyahu sought to reassure Cyprus that its deal with Turkey would not affect Israel’s relationship with the island nation. He called Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades soon after signing the deal to say that "the strategic importance [of the] relationship between the Cyprus Republic and Israel [remains intact]", according to an Israeli government statement.
However, a pipeline from Israel’s offshore gas fields – which are yet to be developed – and Turkey may not be feasible, even if Cyprus accepts the connection traversing its territory.
"With the pipeline there are three different types of complexities – technical, financial and geopolitical," an oil and gas analyst from the region, who wished to remain anonymous, told Interfax Natural Gas Daily.
"On the technical side, it’s about 500 km of deep waters, so they would need to find out how complicated or feasible it is to build a pipeline and how long it would take to do it. Financially, if its $2 billion it’s one thing, if it’s $4 billion it’s another."
The pipeline route could be adjusted to dogleg around Cyprus’s waters, but that would add considerably to the cost. And although Turkey’s need for gas has risen rapidly while its sources of supply have been constrained, this now looks set to change.
The country may soon be able to reduce its dependence on Russian gas by importing from Kurdistan, Egypt and other suppliers. "Turkey is examining all the options. This is just another option for them. All of the options are difficult options," said the analyst.
Israel is looking to export its gas via pipeline to other potential buyers within the region, including Egypt, Jordan, Cyprus and Kurdistan. It would also prefer to sell gas to its neighbours instead of attempting to build costly LNG facilities.
However, it will need to compete with Cyprus and Egypt once they develop their respective Aphrodite and Zohr fields. Both countries are unlikely to want to help Israel become a more effective competitor in selling gas in the region.
Exporting gas to its neighbours would be strategically important for Israel, although sending Israeli gas to Europe is particularly appealing.
"[W]e need [gas] markets. [The] Leviathan [field] could supply both the Egyptian market that we intend to work with and also the Turkish market as well as the supply of gas through Turkey to Europe, and this is a strategic issue for the state of Israel," said Netanyahu. "This could not have come sooner without this agreement and now we will work to advance it."
Although the Israel-Turkey agreement is an important step for energy cooperation in the East Mediterranean region, many more will need to follow before Israel is able to access gas markets through Turkey.
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