London, 1 Sep 2017 07:35 GMT
Nassir Shirkhani
Attempting to disrupt a drilling campaign off Cyprus with military threats reveals how isolated President Erdogan has become
IT IS deja-vu again off Cyprus. Turkey is once more flexing its military muscles in an apparent attempt to scare Cyprus into halting exploratory drilling off the divided Mediterranean island.
The latest sabre rattling relates to drilling in offshore Block 11 by the drillship West Capella on behalf of France’s Total and Italy’s Eni.
Ankara was quick to dispatch two frigates and a submarine to shadow the vessel before upping the ante last week by issuing two marine advisories (Navtex) reserving access to parts of Cyprus’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ).
“Turkey is continuing its provocative tactics by carrying out aeronautical drills and violating our EEZ with (seismic survey vessel) Barbaros against all the principles of the law of the sea and maritime safety,” Cyprus government spokesman Nicos Christodoulides said.
Ankara’s threats have so far failed to dissuade Total from drilling the Onisiforos well, expected to complete in September.
However, Turkey's tactics galvanised the European Union (EU) in voicing support for Cyprus, echoed by the US administration.
Both Paris and Rome have sent their defence ministers to Nicosia in solidarity. France has even gone the extra mile by dispatching a frigate to the East Mediterranean to reassure Total during its drilling activities.
The Cypriot exploration scene has attracted an impressive array of heavyweights including Shell, ExxonMobil and Total that carry considerable clout on the international arena.
Ankara does not want drilling activities to proceed before securing a deal that would give the breakaway Turkish Cypriot north an equal share of any future hydrocarbon revenues in Cyprus. However, a potential compromise opportunity was lost in July when United Nations-sponsored unification talks collapsed amid recriminations, fuelling fears that Cyprus is heading towards permanent partition.
Countless unification attempts have failed since 1974, when Turkey invaded the island in the wake of a coup staged by nationalists supporting union with Greece.
This is not the first time that Turkey has attempted to derail Cyprus exploration efforts. However, times have changed since 2011 when Ankara made similar military threats in the wake of Cyprus' first major drilling activities.
Turkey — now increasingly isolated because of the anti-Western policies of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan — was then a formidable Washington ally. But Erdogan’s aggressive rhetoric has put him on a collision course with former key allies such as Israel and the EU, while his role in the conflict in neighbouring Syria has also undermined the clout he once enjoyed in Washington.
Experts are dismissing Turkey's latest show of force as nothing more than theatrics.
"For years, Turkey and Erdogan have been building up the image of a regional superpower," says Constantinos Filis, director of research at the Institute of International Relations in Athens. "By not being engaged in this key project, Turkey feels upset, isolated and rejected. And while it knows that it only has itself to blame, Erdogan is trying to save face before his domestic audience by flexing his muscles and playing tough with Cyprus."
"Turkey strikes a fire every time it feels secure enough to do so," says Filis. "Nowadays it has no solid alliances to fall back on."
Now that Turkey’s threats have clearly failed to stop Cyprus from pressing ahead with its offshore exploration campaign, it should perhaps invest more time in diplomacy to ensure a fair share of any future hydrocarbon revenues for the Turkish Cypriots.
After all, the Greek side in the south has said it is willing to share the cake with the estranged north.
[Our Note: Not the estranged north, but with the Turkish Cypriot minority community. The 'estranged north' is an illegal concoction on land that belongs to Greek Christian Cypriots who fled for their lives during the 1974 Turkish invasion. Cyprus has a 19th century land registry, set up by the British during their almost 100 year colonial rule, that proves that around 90% of all private land belongs to Greek Christians, the historic people of Cyprus. Legitimizing a Muslim zone in Cyprus defies logic and would constitute a dangerous precedent for other nations with estranged minorities, Muslim or otherwise.
SOURCE
Attempting to disrupt a drilling campaign off Cyprus with military threats reveals how isolated President Erdogan has become
IT IS deja-vu again off Cyprus. Turkey is once more flexing its military muscles in an apparent attempt to scare Cyprus into halting exploratory drilling off the divided Mediterranean island.
The latest sabre rattling relates to drilling in offshore Block 11 by the drillship West Capella on behalf of France’s Total and Italy’s Eni.
Ankara was quick to dispatch two frigates and a submarine to shadow the vessel before upping the ante last week by issuing two marine advisories (Navtex) reserving access to parts of Cyprus’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ).
“Turkey is continuing its provocative tactics by carrying out aeronautical drills and violating our EEZ with (seismic survey vessel) Barbaros against all the principles of the law of the sea and maritime safety,” Cyprus government spokesman Nicos Christodoulides said.
Ankara’s threats have so far failed to dissuade Total from drilling the Onisiforos well, expected to complete in September.
However, Turkey's tactics galvanised the European Union (EU) in voicing support for Cyprus, echoed by the US administration.
Both Paris and Rome have sent their defence ministers to Nicosia in solidarity. France has even gone the extra mile by dispatching a frigate to the East Mediterranean to reassure Total during its drilling activities.
The Cypriot exploration scene has attracted an impressive array of heavyweights including Shell, ExxonMobil and Total that carry considerable clout on the international arena.
Ankara does not want drilling activities to proceed before securing a deal that would give the breakaway Turkish Cypriot north an equal share of any future hydrocarbon revenues in Cyprus. However, a potential compromise opportunity was lost in July when United Nations-sponsored unification talks collapsed amid recriminations, fuelling fears that Cyprus is heading towards permanent partition.
Countless unification attempts have failed since 1974, when Turkey invaded the island in the wake of a coup staged by nationalists supporting union with Greece.
This is not the first time that Turkey has attempted to derail Cyprus exploration efforts. However, times have changed since 2011 when Ankara made similar military threats in the wake of Cyprus' first major drilling activities.
Turkey — now increasingly isolated because of the anti-Western policies of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan — was then a formidable Washington ally. But Erdogan’s aggressive rhetoric has put him on a collision course with former key allies such as Israel and the EU, while his role in the conflict in neighbouring Syria has also undermined the clout he once enjoyed in Washington.
Experts are dismissing Turkey's latest show of force as nothing more than theatrics.
"For years, Turkey and Erdogan have been building up the image of a regional superpower," says Constantinos Filis, director of research at the Institute of International Relations in Athens. "By not being engaged in this key project, Turkey feels upset, isolated and rejected. And while it knows that it only has itself to blame, Erdogan is trying to save face before his domestic audience by flexing his muscles and playing tough with Cyprus."
"Turkey strikes a fire every time it feels secure enough to do so," says Filis. "Nowadays it has no solid alliances to fall back on."
Now that Turkey’s threats have clearly failed to stop Cyprus from pressing ahead with its offshore exploration campaign, it should perhaps invest more time in diplomacy to ensure a fair share of any future hydrocarbon revenues for the Turkish Cypriots.
After all, the Greek side in the south has said it is willing to share the cake with the estranged north.
[Our Note: Not the estranged north, but with the Turkish Cypriot minority community. The 'estranged north' is an illegal concoction on land that belongs to Greek Christian Cypriots who fled for their lives during the 1974 Turkish invasion. Cyprus has a 19th century land registry, set up by the British during their almost 100 year colonial rule, that proves that around 90% of all private land belongs to Greek Christians, the historic people of Cyprus. Legitimizing a Muslim zone in Cyprus defies logic and would constitute a dangerous precedent for other nations with estranged minorities, Muslim or otherwise.
SOURCE
