Friday, December 26, 2014

A Not-So-Happy Hannukah for Israel’s Natural Gas Industry | Foreign Policy

REPORT

A Not-So-Happy Hannukah for Israel’s Natural Gas Industry



A Not-So-Happy Hannukah for Israel’s Natural Gas Industry
At the beginning of December, Israel was busy trying to convince Brussels to underwrite the creation of a vast network of pipelines to bring new discoveries of Israeli natural gas to Europe. Now, after just a few weeks and an unexpected series of regulatory reversals, Israel is trying to figure out if it will be able to develop the massive natural-gas fields that lay just offshore at all — or if they’ll remain there, tantalizingly out of reach.
Earlier this week, in a surprise move, Israeli antitrust authorities essentially slammed the brakes on the country’s gas development, expressing concern that the handful of companies that are investing billions of dollars in offshore rigs and pipelines to tap the tricky gas fields are just too few. That creates, they say, the specter of a commercial cartel that would have a permanent stranglehold on Israel’s energy future.
In the middle of an election, pocketbook issues like domestic energy prices often come to the fore. And the decision might help protect Israeli consumers, if other companies rushed in to fill the void and start drilling the gas fields on their own, providing more competition for Israel’s energy sector and offering insurance against pricey domestic fuel.
But as it is, with plunging energy prices, a volatile geopolitical environment in the Eastern Mediterranean, terrorism, the never-ending complications from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and uncertain export routes for the Israeli gas, global energy players are hardly falling over themselves to take a rider on big investments there. As a result, the anti-trust decision could translate into a significant delay, if not a derailment, of Israel’s plans to become the newest regional energy power broker.
A pair of big companies, Noble Energy of the United States and Delek Energy of Israel, are spearheading the development of the country’s two biggest finds, Tamar and Leviathan. That latter field, in particular, is the linchpin of Israel’s hopes to have plentiful gas at home and enough to earn billions shipping it to neighbors. Tamar, with about 11 trillion cubic feet, can meet Israel’s own needs for decades and provide gas feedstock for Egypt. Leviathan, twice as large, could fuel a regional export business: A recent deal with Jordan, for example, could be worth as much as $15 billion if it secures approval from both governments.
Together, the consortium controls about 90 percent of Israeli gas. In order to assuage competition concerns, the consortium had agreed earlier this year to unload ownership in a pair of smaller gas fields, with the understanding that would be enough to win a regulatory green light for continued work on the big fields.
But Israel competition officials got spooked. On Tuesday, they said that such concentration would essentially create an illegal cartel. The proposed remedy will likely be presented early next year, but would probably include a demand to hive off Leviathan and sell it to a different consortium, pushing back development of that field for years at the very least.
Leviathan was originally supposed to begin operation in 2015, but that was later delayed until 2018 because of regulatory setbacks. The latest zigzag could push the field’s development into the next decade — if investors are found at all.
The antitrust move enraged some top Israeli government officials. Orna Hozman-Bechor, the director general of the Ministry of National Infrastructure, Energy, and Water, warned regulators Wednesday that further delays to Leviathan “will result in dramatic and extremely serious damage to the Israeli energy sector,” according to a letter seen by theJerusalem Post.
The energy companies themselves were also furious, criticizing what they see as a capricious environment hostile to the kinds of big-dollar, long-term investment needed to bring energy resources online. Israeli gas development has already been plagued by agonizing debates over how much gas can be exported, and at what price it can be sold domestically.
Noble’s chairman, Charles Davidson, called the about face “another disturbing example of the uncertain regulatory environment in Israel,” adding that it sets a “harmful precedent.” Noble officials said that further investment is now on hold until the regulatory mess is resolved.
Energy expert Gal Luft, co-director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, likens Israel to other energy-rich but investor-unfriendly countries. “Israel’s latest decision is tantamount to nationalization of the kind seen in Argentina, Venezuela, Mexico and Russia,” he wrote this week.
The ripple effects of the move could have impacts for Israel at home, among its next-door neighbors, and potentially even more broadly.
Thanks to the development of the Tamar field, the country secured a measure of energy independence it has long lacked; but exploiting Leviathan, which holds twice as much gas as Tamar, is key to both ensuring long-term supplies of affordable natural gas for Israeli homes and businesses and having enough additional gas to sell to neighbors such as Jordan and Egypt.
Indeed, this summer, Noble reached a deal with Jordan to sell gas from Leviathan to the Arab country. The move, backed by U.S. diplomats, was seen as a way to both further cement friendly ties between Israel and Jordan and give Amman some breathing room during its own economic and political struggles. That $15 billion accord had already been under fire from some Jordanian politicians, leery of relying on Israel for energy imports, but now could be on hold for years–if not indefinitely.
More broadly, Israeli hopes to become an alternative source of energy supplies for Europe at a time when Brussels is scrambling to find suppliers other than Russia look even more fanciful. Sending Israeli gas across the deep Mediterranean to Greece and on into the rest of Europe was always going to be a difficult and expensive energy option for Europe, but hiccups in the development of the gas field needed to feed it could be a death knell for such plans.
SEDRAK MKRTCHYAN/Flickr




Link to source: http://foreignpolicy.com/2014/12/26/a-not-so-happy-hannukah-for-israels-natural-gas-industry-leviathan-noble/

Thursday, December 25, 2014

U.S. should help protect new energy assets in the Eastern Mediterranean | The Washington Times

By Marios P. Efthymiopoulos - - Thursday, December 25, 2014

The discovery of massive fields of natural gas in the coastal waters of Cyprus and Israel has set off an energy race that underscores the need for the Obama administration to re-examine its policy of retrenchment in the Eastern Mediterranean.

The gas finds will make Israel and Cyprus exporters of energy for decades, thus strengthening the hands of two reliable allies in the war on terrorism. Israel has signed a deal to supply Jordan with $15 billion worth of natural gas from its Leviathan energy field over 15 years, according to The Times of Israel, and Israel has signed a memorandum of understanding with Egypt to sell as much as 2.5 billion cubic meters of gas to Egyptian industrial, nongovernmental customers. Texas-based Halliburton has signed an agreement with Cyprus to drill up to 54 gas wells during the next few years, thereby investing more than $5 billion in production costs.

Sheshinski: Breaking up gas monopoly won't solve anything | Globes

Sheshinski: Breaking up gas monopoly won't solve anything

Eitan Sheshinski


Prof. Eytan Sheshinski sees linking the Israeli gas price to other markets as the way forward.

The solution to the problem of natural gas prices in Israel is not the break up of Delek Group Ltd. (TASE: DLEKG) and Noble Energy's monopoly; it is establishing a mechanism for linking the price to an accepted international price, according to Prof. Eytan Sheshinski. Sheshinski headed the committee that altered the state's tax revenue from the natural gas reservoirs. In a "Globes" interview, Sheshinski warned that creating a duopoly in place of the current monopoly could even worsen the consumer's plight, and admitted that there was no perfect solution for the structure of the gas industry.

Sheshinski was very careful not to be perceived as someone spoiling the "euphoria surrounding the splitting of control over the reservoirs," as he described the enthusiastic public response to Antitrust Authority director general Prof. David Gilo's decision to retract the agreement he had signed. "I support Gilo's action in the sense that his motives were reasonable. From the outset, there was no chance of generating pressure on prices by selling the two small reservoirs (Tanin and Karish, A.B.), and I can therefore understand his withdrawal from the agreement. He did not propose follow-up measures."

"Globes": Can you understand the developers' arguments?

Sheshinski: 
"The state has a right to change its mind under certain conditions, which are defined and precise. Stability is very important, and volatile changes are obviously undesirable, but there are other goals. If we now believe in retrospect that under the agreement with Israel Electric Corporation (IEC) (TASE: ELEC.B22) we'll pay higher prices than those prevailing around the world, the government can claim that the public interest requires some change in these agreements. That will create uncertainty for investors. It happened in the UK with North Sea oil, where investment stopped, and the government reversed itself. This is certainly a consideration. I don't want to people to think that policy here is volatile, so it's important that policy be set as soon as possible."

Do you see a problem with prices in Israel?

"As of now, there's nothing dramatic. The current price in Israel is $6.50 (per BTU, A. B.), not at the European level, and certainly not at the Far Eastern level ($8-10 in Europe and $15 or more in the Far East, A.B.). All in all, today's price is reasonable, but I understand the concern about future developments. The concern is not to be at the mercy of a monopoly selling to the entire economy. This isn't a monopoly selling a given product; it's a monopoly supplying energy to broad sectors, and any change in the price therefore will have an effect on the entire economy."

What is your opinion about Gilo's original intention to require Noble Energy and Delek Group to sell one of the two reservoirs?
"I'm worried about this euphoria surrounding a split. Forcing Noble Energy and Delek Group to sell Tamar or Leviathan through a legal battle could take 10 years, and the Antitrust commissioner said so himself. I beleive that it's worthwhile embarking on such struggles only when you know that there is a definite advantage at the end of the road. Both experience around the world and economic theory explicitly state that anyone who thinks that a duopoly will lead to perfect competition is wrong. On this question, you can rely on our experience here in Israel."
What is the minimum number of players needed for true competition?

The question is not how many players; it's what their share is. In Israeli banking, Bank Hapoalim (TASE: POLI) and Bank Leumi(TASE: LUMI) jointly control 80% of the credit in the economy, even though there are quite a few other small and medium-sized banks. The situation with gas is very similar, because we have two very large reservoirs (Leviathan and Tamar contain almost 90% of Israel's gas reserves, A.B.), and I don't see any small and medium-sized players that can arise around them and compete with them."

Do you support price controls?

"Just as I have doubts about a duopoly, I also have objections to price controls. Price controls give a lot of authority to a bureaucratic system, and experience does not justify optimism."

What do you suggest?

"I think the solutions should begin from the end, meaning that we define what goal we're trying to achieve. In my opinion, the goal is to ensure that gas prices in Israel do not differ from those prevailing in similar countries around the world. A revolution in global energy prices is taking place now. The US is becoming the world's largest oil producer, and prices are sliding - for both oil and gas. In my opinion, this trend will persist, and our goal should be not to pay more than the reasonable price in countries whose situation is similar to ours with respect to gas reservoirs.

"The solution is therefore to set a binding linkage formula of a weighted average of gas prices in various countries. That is connected to other matters that have already been discussed in the past, and which will now have to be reopened, such as export quotas. If the government now reopens the agreement, from now on, there will be a given linking formula. The formula itself will have to set a floor price, for example. The question of energy security will be reopened. They will also have to reopen the agreement between Tamar and the Spanish company - it isn't clear who will sell the gas to the Egyptians."

Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on December 25, 2014
© Copyright of Globes Publisher Itonut (1983) Ltd. 2014


Source: http://www.globes.co.il/en/article-sheshinski-breaking-up-gas-monopoly-wont-solve-anything-1000996235

Israel's Policy Confusion on Natural Gas | Washington Institute

Israel's Policy Confusion on Natural Gas

Also available in العربية
December 23, 2014
The Israeli regulator's decision to reopen a natural gas agreement because of a monopoly issue jeopardizes the country's gas export potential and its ability to attract foreign capital, as well as threatening to complicate relations with Jordan, the Palestinian Authority, and Egypt.
Yesterday, Israel's Antitrust Authority announced it was considering whether to cancel an agreement that allows Houston-based Noble Energy and Israel's Delek Group to develop the country's two biggest offshore gas discoveries, the Leviathan and Tamar fields. The move would void an earlier compromise whereby the two companies could evade being labeled a cartel and retain ownership in return for selling two smaller fields, Karish and Tanin.
All the fields lie offshore northern Israel, with Leviathan -- at eighty miles the farthest out -- in waters several thousand feet deep. Tamar, containing 10 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of gas, was discovered in 2009 and brought onstream last year. Its gas now generates about half of Israel's electricity. The appropriately named Leviathan (22 tcf) was discovered in 2010, but production won't begin until at least late 2017. Together, the two fields contain enough gas to satisfy Israel's domestic needs for many decades as well as providing a surplus for export. Israel's geographic position has occasionally prompted questions regarding whether exporting some of its gas would ever be commercially viable, although Noble and Delek have never accepted this view.
A final decision by the antitrust commissioner, David Gilo, will only be made after he holds a hearing, likely next week. But the immediate impact has been to cast doubt on when Leviathan will be developed, if at all. The first phase of the project, establishing seabed production systems and a pipeline ashore, is estimated to cost $6.5 billion. Both Noble and Delek have been working to raise the funds. Likely customers for the gas include a new power station at Jenin in the West Bank, the Jordanian state electricity company, and a Spanish-owned, underutilized liquefied natural gas facility on Egypt's Nile Delta coast. The U.S. government has been a firm supporter of these prospective deals, seeing them as commercially logical as well as helping secure regional peace. If they were to be canceled, the impact on at least the Jordanian economy could be substantial.
If Noble and Delek are judged to be operating as a cartel, the Leviathan field will apparently have to be sold, and the new owner would be responsible for financing its development and securing new agreements with potential customers.
With elections in Israel scheduled for March, the surging public debate on natural gas will be further invigorated. Considerable resentment has already been aired over the profits that could eventually accrue to Delek, whose owner, Yitzhak Tshuva, is a self-made billionaire personifying for some the inequalities in Israeli society. But the central issue is the price being paid by the Israel Electric Corporation to the Noble/Delek consortium for the Tamar gas. No world market price exists for gas; Israel Electric is paying $5.5 per million British thermal units, which is less than 70 percent of what the European Union paid and less than half what Japan paid for gas in November, but 25 percent higher than the U.S. "Henry Hub" price for the month. Nevertheless, it is hard to see how notionally forcing the sale of Leviathan would drive down the price: the greater risk premium that a new investor would require would likely drive up costs, swamping any modest benefit from having two producers rather than one.
A key question is whether Noble Energy will lessen its commitment to developing Israel's gas in these circumstances. Its outgoing CEO, Charles Davidson, expressed frustration with Israel's regulatory system in a September interview: "I can't help being taken aback by the inability to decide on the part of the government and most senior regulatory echelons in Israel. It is unreasonable and creates a constant atmosphere of uncertainty." Today, a Noble spokesman said the decision "will impact Noble Energy's continued investment." Noble is the only major foreign oil and gas company operating in Israel, staying on even after the government changed the terms of taxation for energy companies. In these circumstances, it is possible the Leviathan field could never find a buyer. Finding a buyer would also be challenging if, alternatively, the Tamar field were put up for sale.
Whichever way it goes, the decision of the antitrust commissioner could still be challenged in the courts. Also, the government's deputy legal advisor has just proposed a new approach to regulating the natural gas sector, although the immediate result will likely be the creation of a committee to discuss the matter -- unless Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, judged to see Israel's gas as an important geopolitical card, intervenes. Today, he ordered Professor Eugene Kandel, the head of his National Economic Council, to check the implications of the antitrust commissioner's actions. To avert a decision that could handicap future U.S. policy, holiday plans or not, American officials should urgently point out to their Israeli counterparts the probable negative consequences of jeopardizing the deal.

Simon Henderson is the Baker Fellow and director of the Gulf and Energy Policy Program at The Washington Institute. His upcoming Policy Focus on exploiting Israel's natural gas riches will be published in early 2015.



Link to source: https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/26585

Wednesday, December 24, 2014

UBS: Forced sale of Leviathan unlikely | Globes

UBS: Forced sale of Leviathan unlikely


UBS analyst Roni Biron: The recent turn of events has more than one potential end-game.

UBS analyst Roni Biron says that a forced sale of the rights in the Leviathan natural gas reserve is not necessarily the most likely outcome of the Israeli antitrust commissioner's decision that the ownership by Delek Group and Noble Energy of Israel's two major gas reserves, Leviathan and Tamar, constitutes a cartel.
"In a surprise move, the Israeli anti-trust commissioner has announced that the commission has decided not to go through with its agreement with Delek Group (Delek) and Noble Energy (NBL) from March this year relating to their cross holdings in Tamar and Leviathan," Biron writes. "Under the previous agreement, Delek and NBL have agreed to sell their stakes in the Karish and Tanin discoveries in exchange for anti-trust clearance. The commissioner has decided not to go through with this agreement and has yet to specify alternative courses of action. We expect more clarity in the coming weeks followed by a hearing process in mid-late January.

"The recent turn of events has more than one potential end-game, in our view. We do not see a forced sale of Leviathan as a likely scenario given the geopolitical importance of pending regional agreements and the need for a second source of gas into Israel. Should Delek and NBL are forced to choose between Leviathan and Tamar, we believe the latter appears more likely and less dilutive. Other potential avenues may include price control or forcing the partners in Leviathan to separately negotiate domestic supply agreements. One way or another, we think the main risks are potential delays in the sanctioning and development of Leviathan and lower domestic prices. We note that anti-trust clearance is a pre-requisite for Leviathan's FID which had been targeted for 1Q15. NBL has already stated it would 'vigorously defend its rights', which may have unclear implications on timeline and pending deals."
UBS says it has placed its rating and NAV-derived price targets for Avner Oil, Delek Group, Delek Drilling, Isramco and Ratio Oil under review pending more clarity.
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on December 24, 2014
© Copyright of Globes Publisher Itonut (1983) Ltd. 2014

Link to source: http://www.globes.co.il/en/article-ubs-forced-sale-of-leviathan-not-inevitable-1000995940

Noble Energy indicates it will fight gas cartel decision | Globes

Noble Energy indicates it will fight gas cartel decision

Noble Energy chairman Charles Davidson: We will vigorously defend our rights relating to our assets.


In response to the decision by Prof. David Gilo, Director of the Israel Antitrust Authority, not to submit the consent decree embodying the compromise he had reached with Delek Group Ltd. (TASE: DLEKG) and Noble Energy, Inc. (NBL) allowing the two companies to continue owning the rights in both the major gas reserves in Israeli waters, Tamar and Leviathan, to the Antitrust Tribunal for final approval. In response, Noble Energy says it and its partners have requested a hearing on the topic with the Antitrust Authority, which it says it expects will occur in the next few weeks.

In March 2014, the partners and the Antitrust Authority reached agreement for the consent decree that included the divestiture of the Tanin and Karish gas fields. Noble Energy says that this agreement is a key component for the final investment decision on the Leviathan development.
Noble Energy chairman Charles Davidson said today, "The actions of the Antitrust Authority are another disturbing example of the uncertain regulatory environment in Israel. Specifically, this is a matter that we believed was resolved some time ago and follows on recent assurances from the Antitrust Authority that approval was forthcoming. We believe this is a harmful precedent for Israel to set and we will vigorously defend our rights relating to our assets."

Noble Energy president and CEO David Stover added, "We are disappointed in this latest communication from the Antitrust Authority. Final resolution of this item, as well as a number of other regulatory matters, is required before we proceed with additional exploration or development investments in our Israel business."
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on December 24, 2014
© Copyright of Globes Publisher Itonut (1983) Ltd. 2014

Link to source: http://www.globes.co.il/en/article-noble-energy-indicates-it-will-fight-gas-cartel-decision-1000995763

Tuesday, December 23, 2014

Israel's Gas Dream – The End Is Nigh | Journal of Energy Security


Link to source: http://www.meforum.org/4939/israel-gas-dream-the-end-is-nigh

Noble Energy Provides Update On Regulatory Matters In Israel | Noble Energy


HOUSTONDec. 23, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Earlier today, Noble Energy, Inc. (NYSE: NBL) and its partners in the Leviathan field were advised by the Israel Anti-trust Authority of its decision to not submit the Consent Decree to the Anti-trust Tribunal for final approval.  In response, Noble Energy and partners have requested a hearing on the topic with the Anti-trust Authority, which Noble Energy expects to occur in the next few weeks. 
In March 2014, Noble Energy, its partners, and the Anti-trust Authority reached agreement for the Consent Decree that included the divestiture of the Tanin and Karish gas fields.  This agreement is a key component for the final investment decision on the Leviathan development. 
Charles D. Davidson, Noble Energy's Chairman, commented, "The actions of the Anti-trust Authority are another disturbing example of the uncertain regulatory environment in Israel.  Specifically, this is a matter that we believed was resolved some time ago and follows on recent assurances from the Anti-trust Authority that approval was forthcoming.  We believe this is a harmful precedent for Israel to set and we will vigorously defend our rights relating to our assets." 
David L. Stover, President and Chief Executive Officer, added, "We are disappointed in this latest communication from the Anti-trust Authority.  Final resolution of this item, as well as a number of other regulatory matters, is required before we proceed with additional exploration or development investments in our Israel business."
Noble Energy is a leading independent energy company engaged in worldwide oil and natural gas exploration and production.  The Company has core operations onshore in the U.S., primarily in the DJ Basin and Marcellus Shale, in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico, offshore Eastern Mediterranean, and offshore West Africa.  Noble Energy is listed on the New York Stock Exchange and is traded under the ticker symbol NBL.  Further information is available at www.nobleenergyinc.com.
This news release contains certain "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of federal securities law.  Words such as "anticipates," "believes," "expects," "intends,"  "will," "should," "may," and similar expressions may be used to identify forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are not statements of historical fact and reflect Noble Energy' s current views about future events. They include estimates of planned drilling activity, business strategy and other plans and objectives for future operations. No assurances can be given that the forward-looking statements contained in this news release will occur as projected, and actual results may differ materially from those projected. Forward-looking statements are based on current expectations, estimates and assumptions that involve a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected. These risks include, without limitation, government regulation or other actions, the volatility in commodity prices for crude oil and natural gas, the presence or recoverability of estimated reserves, the ability to replace reserves, environmental risks, drilling and operating risks, exploration and development risks, competition, the ability of management to execute its plans to meet its goals and other risks inherent in Noble Energy's business that are discussed in its most recent annual report on Form 10-K and in other reports on file with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These reports are also available from Noble Energy's offices or website,http://www.nobleenergyinc.com. Forward-looking statements are based on the estimates and opinions of management at the time the statements are made. Noble Energy does not assume any obligation to update forward-looking statements should circumstances or management's estimates or opinions change.




Link to source: http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/noble-energy-provides-update-on-regulatory-matters-in-israel-300013783.html