Turkey’s failed military coup mid-July raises a host of questions concerning the country’s stability, its investment climate and the future of gas deliveries to and though Turkey. It may also boost the prospects for a revival of the stalled Turkish Stream project to deliver Russian gas to Europe via Turkey.
For gas, there are two main issues to be considered: the security of the current and future import pipelines; and the possibility that the aftermath of the coup might prompt a re-think of future gas import projects.
Turkey relies massively on imported gas to meet its energy needs, with most coming via four major import pipelines: the 15bn m³/yr eastern Balkans line via Ukraine – a system which Russia has said it intends to close by the end of 2019; the 15bn m³/yr capacity Blue Stream pipeline across the Black Sea from Russia; the 6.6bn m³/yr Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum (BTE) system from Azerbaijan; and the 10bn m³/yr capacity line that brings Iranian gas across the border at Dogubayezit.