CAIRO, Egypt — A new alliance is forming in the Eastern Mediterranean.
By Jacob Wirtschafter, 09 December 2015
As Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and Cyprus President Nicos Anastasiades meet in Athens Wednesday, for the third time this year, the Syrian civil war and Islamic State are at the top of their official agenda.
But it’s no secret that the three countries’ political tensions with Turkey, and their desire to develop the huge, newly discovered gas fields off their coasts, will take up much of their time.
Within a short six-year time span, Cyprus, Israel and Egypt have made five major petroleum discoveries in their territorial waters in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Cyprus’ Aphrodite field is estimated to hold 140 billion cubic meters of natural gas. The lion’s share is likely to be exported. Israel’s Tamar and Leviathan fields hold around 900 billion cubic meters of gas in total, positioning it as a future energy exporter, too.
But the largest discovery happened this year at Egypt’s Zohr field, where a find of 850 billion cubic meters - worth around $106 billion - promises not only to stop the periodic electricity blackouts in Cairo but to relaunch the country as a hub for refining and exporting energy to Europe. The finds have led to unprecedented levels of cooperation between Cyprus, Egypt and Greece.
Israel has also grown closer to Cyprus and Greece in recent years as its relations with Turkey have cooled. On his recent visit to Jerusalem, Prime Minister Tsipras said plans were underway for a Greek-Cypriot–Israeli summit to be held next month in Nicosia.
“The Israel-Greece-Cyprus alliance seeks to block Turkey’s ambitions of regional hegemony, while at the same time offering Ankara a key place in the new Mediterranean political order, if and when she comes to her senses,” noted Eran Lerman, senior research associate at Israel’s Bar Ilan’s Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies.
Benjamin Netanyahu was noticeably absent from this week’s summit in Athens – and not because of the contract dispute that erupted in recent days over the failure of the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation to deliver gas to the Israel Electric Company through a pipeline which runs across the Sinai.
As the Greeks, Cypriots and Egyptians began talks Tuesday, the Israeli PM said he would send a special envoy to Egypt to resolve the dispute between the two firms.
But prospects of a four-way summit – with Greece, Cyprus, Egypt and Israel – are slim to none. Sisi will continue the cordial phone calls with the Israeli Prime Minister but there will be no formal, publicly visible encounter as long as Jerusalem is dug in over settlement expansion in the West Bank and reluctant to accept a Palestinian state.
Greece and Cyprus, on the other hand, are also in lock-step with EU policies on Israeli-Palestinian matters - but that’s not stopping them from solidifying economic and military ties with the Jewish state.
“Major gas discoveries in Israel, Cyprus and Egypt have completely changed regional geopolitics and energy supply,” said Mathios Rigas, chief executive officer of Energean Oil & Gas in Athens.
But Turkey has moved aggressively to stymie the countries’ efforts, reviving its traditional antagonism to Greece and the ethnic Greek government of the divided island of Cyprus.
Ankara has also worked to undermine Sisi in Egypt by hosting exiled Muslim Brotherhood politicians and subsidizing satellite TV channels denouncing the removal of former President Mohamed Morsi.
In April, as Cyprus was conducting exploratory drilling, Turkey dispatched a research vessel into the Cypriot zone — a precursor to drilling.
Tensions continued to grow in May when Nicosia invited the Egyptian and Greek navies to conduct a practice drill in the Mediterranean with Cypriot ships. Joint Egyptian-Greek air force exercises followed. The exercises were clearly aimed at Turkey.
Nonetheless, Turkey and Cyprus have intensified talks over reunification of the island, divided since 1974 between the internationally recognized Greek republic in the south and the breakaway Turkish state in the north.
Ahmed El Bassoussy a researcher at the Regional Center for Strategic Studies in Cairo, says political and economic questions are becoming fused in the region. “It seems that all involved parties began the process of exploiting and utilizing gas politically as a tool to apply pressure,” he said.
A former member of the Greek Communist Party and a leader of anti-globalization protests, Tsipras may seem an unlikely strategic partner for Egypt’s president El-Sisi, a former director of military intelligence and force behind draconian laws against public demonstrations.
But both Tsipras and Sisi share an aversion to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, whom they hold responsible for the rise of jihadism in the region and the exodus of refugees from Syria.
Overtones critical of Ankara were present in a briefing given by Egypt’s State Information Service as Sisi departed for Athens. “The three countries will agree on intensifying their cooperation at the diplomatic and technical levels to convey a common vision to the international community regarding jihadis,” said Information Service spokesman Salah Abdel Sadek.
Jacob Wirtschafter is a Middle East correspondent for Associated Reporters Abroad and a contributor to i24 News from Cairo. His Twitter handle is @levantreporter
