14 September 2016
The east's capture of four ports gives it a huge victory in the battle for the country. Oil exports may rise and the conflict could deepen
The opening round of Libya's long-anticipated oil war began this week with the seizure of four key oil ports by eastern general Khalifa Haftar. So comprehensive was the victory that it may also prove to be the closing round.
In the aptly named Operation Surprise Lightning launched on the morning of 11 September, Haftar's Libyan National Army (LNA), loyal to the elected House of Representatives (HoR) parliament in Tobruk, struck at four terminals simultaneously.
The move gives the east control of Libya's commanding heights and may be a decisive blow in the country's civil war. It certainly changes the balance of power. It may also herald a recovery in Libyan oil exports, though many obstacles remain - and Misratan militias may shift attention from their battle against Islamic State (IS) in Sirte to engage the LNA instead.
The LNA's capture of the ports, evidently long-planned, was executed with ruthless efficiency. Es-Sider, Libya's largest export port, with a capacity of 447,000 barrels per day (now much damaged by conflict in recent years), and nearby 220,000-b/d port of Ras Lanuf, also home to Libya's largest refinery, fell with hardly a shot fired, and no damage to facilities. Both were held by the Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG), a militia loyal to the UN-appointed Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli.
On 12 September, a third PFG-held port, Zueitina, fell to the LNA; and a day later, after negotiations and minimal fighting, Brega, a port and small refinery, agreed to Tobruk control.
At a stroke, Tobruk and the LNA, already in control of most of the Sirte basin's oilfields - which until IS damaged it last year had capacity of 0.6m b/d, but remained shut - gained decisive control of the four ports that serve them.
A political bombshell also followed on 12 September, when Mustafa Sanallah, chairman of the National Oil Corporation (NOC), seemed to endorse the capture of the ports, and promised to work with Haftar to double production within four weeks. (Sanallah previously told Petroleum Economist that damage to storage facilities at Ras Lanuf and Es-Sider would restrict exports from the Sirte basin to 200,000 b/d until repairs could be carried out.)
The struggle for Libya's oil has been waged from the moment the GNA, created by a UN commission, arrived in Tripoli in late March. The US and EU switched international recognition status from Tobruk to the Tripoli administration, giving it title to Libya's oil revenues, although according to last year's UN-led Libyan Political Dialogue, the basis for the GNA, the HoR was supposed to vote its approval of the new government. It has not.
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The opening round of Libya's long-anticipated oil war began this week with the seizure of four key oil ports by eastern general Khalifa Haftar. So comprehensive was the victory that it may also prove to be the closing round.
In the aptly named Operation Surprise Lightning launched on the morning of 11 September, Haftar's Libyan National Army (LNA), loyal to the elected House of Representatives (HoR) parliament in Tobruk, struck at four terminals simultaneously.
The move gives the east control of Libya's commanding heights and may be a decisive blow in the country's civil war. It certainly changes the balance of power. It may also herald a recovery in Libyan oil exports, though many obstacles remain - and Misratan militias may shift attention from their battle against Islamic State (IS) in Sirte to engage the LNA instead.
The LNA's capture of the ports, evidently long-planned, was executed with ruthless efficiency. Es-Sider, Libya's largest export port, with a capacity of 447,000 barrels per day (now much damaged by conflict in recent years), and nearby 220,000-b/d port of Ras Lanuf, also home to Libya's largest refinery, fell with hardly a shot fired, and no damage to facilities. Both were held by the Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG), a militia loyal to the UN-appointed Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli.
On 12 September, a third PFG-held port, Zueitina, fell to the LNA; and a day later, after negotiations and minimal fighting, Brega, a port and small refinery, agreed to Tobruk control.
At a stroke, Tobruk and the LNA, already in control of most of the Sirte basin's oilfields - which until IS damaged it last year had capacity of 0.6m b/d, but remained shut - gained decisive control of the four ports that serve them.
A political bombshell also followed on 12 September, when Mustafa Sanallah, chairman of the National Oil Corporation (NOC), seemed to endorse the capture of the ports, and promised to work with Haftar to double production within four weeks. (Sanallah previously told Petroleum Economist that damage to storage facilities at Ras Lanuf and Es-Sider would restrict exports from the Sirte basin to 200,000 b/d until repairs could be carried out.)
The struggle for Libya's oil has been waged from the moment the GNA, created by a UN commission, arrived in Tripoli in late March. The US and EU switched international recognition status from Tobruk to the Tripoli administration, giving it title to Libya's oil revenues, although according to last year's UN-led Libyan Political Dialogue, the basis for the GNA, the HoR was supposed to vote its approval of the new government. It has not.
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