Jul 5th 2018| CAIRO
Some think the new fields could turn Egypt into an energy hub
FIVE years ago the country that hopes to become a Mediterranean energy hub couldn’t even keep the lights on. When Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi took power in a coup in July 2013, Egypt was plagued by blackouts. Factories shut down. Surgeons operated by torchlight.
Egypt’s energy supply is still spotty. But on June 27th newspapers trumpeted the discovery of an enormous natural-gas field, called Noor, off the coast of North Sinai (see map). They billed it as the largest in the region. That title is already held by Egypt’s massive Zohr field, discovered in 2015, which is expected to change the country from a net importer to a net exporter of gas by next year.
Much of the enthusiasm is premature. The Egyptian government has downplayed reports of the Noor field’s size. Eni, the Italian firm working on the field, has done only seismic surveys of the area. It will not drill an exploratory well until August. Still, it is clearly optimistic. It paid $105m for exploration rights.
Not long ago it was Israel, not Egypt, that was tipped to become the region’s gas giant. It had found two fields, Tamar and Leviathan, with combined reserves of perhaps 800 billion cubic metres, enough to meet domestic demand for decades and leave vast quantities for export. The problem was getting it to market. Israel does not have pipelines to big consumers, nor the facilities to liquefy gas in order to export it by ship.
It found the answer in Egypt, which diverted exports for domestic use when gas production fell after the revolution of 2011. That left two liquefaction terminals sitting idle. In February an Egyptian firm, Dolphinus Holdings, signed a deal for $15bn to buy Israeli gas and prepare it for export. Cyprus, too, wants Egyptian firms to liquefy gas from its Aphrodite field. Zohr did not change the equation, because most of its production will stay at home to meet ravenous demand. More than three-quarters of Egypt’s electricity comes from gas-fired plants, and power consumption grew by 14% last year.
If Egypt keeps finding new reserves, though, it will need those terminals to export its own gas. New finds seem inevitable. Eni alone plans to invest more than $10bn in Egypt by 2022. It and other firms have struck onshore gas in the western desert, where the government is keen to explore further. “All the offshore works in the Mediterranean are east of the [Nile] delta. The west is unexplored,” says Tarek al-Molla, the petroleum minister.
Mediterranean gas will have no shortage of buyers. Demand is soaring in developing countries. Consumption in China alone grew by 15% last year. But it would be particularly attractive to Europe, which depends on Russian gas. European imports from Russia hit a record high in 2017. Former Soviet states fear this gives Vladimir Putin, the president of Russia, leverage over them. His country has cut off supplies in the past. Egypt and its neighbours could help Europe diversify its suppliers.
First they need to get it there. New liquefaction terminals would create jobs and revenue for Egypt. They would also cement economic ties with Israel and help Cyprus, where Eni is exploring a Zohr-like field called Calypso off the south-western coast. Israeli officials have talked for years about a trilateral pipeline to Europe. It would be the world’s longest undersea pipeline, at 2,200km. The $7bn price tag kept it a pipe dream. But it is looking increasingly viable.
The biggest beneficiary of Egypt’s gas finds may be Mr Sisi, the country’s president. Egypt’s budget deficit is projected to be $24bn this year (8.4% of GDP), and Mr Sisi is running out of ways to squeeze extra revenue out of a mostly poor population. In the past two months his government has raised the prices of water, fuel, electricity and public transport, all of which are still heavily subsidised. Even the cost of a driving licence abruptly shot up by 1,400%. Mr Molla wagers that Egypt has done with buying gas abroad. Revenues from future exports will not turn the country into a flashy Gulf emirate. But they should keep the lights on in Egyptian hospitals—and perhaps pay for some new ones, too.
